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What to Expect from Printed Electronics in 2010
December 31, 1969 |Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
IDTechEx summarizes some of the main global trends in 2009 and gives some predictions and areas of opportunity in printed electronics for the new year. These include metal oxide transistors for OLED displays, memristors, embedded electrochriomic, electroluminescent, and other techs for displays on consumer electronics and for photovoltaics. IDTechEx saw a huge rise in activity on metal oxide transistors (which can be transparent). The key application for these is OLED display backplanes, given the higher mobility performance required compared to conventional amorphous silicon (aSi) backplanes used for LCDs. Only limited demonstrators have been realized so far, however. IDTechEx expects commercial products will appear from 2012 onwards. In contrast, there was some shakeout in those developing organic-semiconductor-based transistors; next year the first commercial product will appear from Plastic Logic using these to drive E-ink displays. 2009 saw growth in innovation, quantified from the huge number of companies that moved into carbon nanotubes and graphene research, to those that demonstrated memristors, embedded electrochromic, electroluminescent and other forms of displays, and much more. From the peak interest in thin-film photovoltaics in mid 2008, 2009 was a harder year for all involved in photovoltaics as demand was half of capacity, and the biggest customer (the Spanish government) drastically cut back its photovoltaic budget. Those that have not yet started to open manufacturing facilities may struggle to raise the money to do so over the next year. IDTechEx still awaits CIGS/DSSC/OPV to be printed on a commercial scale, which developers say will happen in 2010 but given the overcapacity it could be another year or so. There was a huge surge in activity in East Asia, from acquisition of display companies (OLED materials from Kodak, E-ink, Polymervision etc) to new transistor-based work. Read more about printed photovoltaics here. New in 2009 was huge interest from end users, particularly consumer goods companies and consumer electronics companies that have set up internal teams focused on studying and applying printed electronics in their businesses. Now the opportunity is for the industry to conceive and develop new products using printed electronics for these companies. Those that have been successfully commercial have moved from the left of the value chain to the right. Despite the economic meltdown, fund raising was still rife on both sides of the Atlantic, with strong new investor interest. The number of new organizations entering the topic, despite the recession, has grown considerably, indicated by a 25% growth in attendance at the recent IDTechEx Printed Electronics USA event in San Jose, CA. In 2010, IDTechEx expects an increasing range of demonstrator units to be made, showing a wide gambit of technologies. The best will incorporate two or more printed electronics technologies. These are key to showing to adopters what is possible and presenting ideas for adoption. More creative design will be involved, and the interest from end users that started in earnest in 2009 will continue to grow. The industry needs to be careful of overpromising and announcing product launches that are later delayed. IDTechEx see a huge opportunity to consolidate some of the key enabling technologies in one group as many new companies keep entering the field and the industry fragments. Such key companies will be presenting at the annual IDTechEx investor summits, the next one to be held in Dresden, Germany on April 12. Investor interest will continue to grow reflecting the huge opportunity. The start of 2010 will see a surge in e-readers, as many more become available, in larger, thinner, and even flexible formats. More organizations will offer commercial OLED lighting panels. Those in transistor development should address the need to create key enabling building blocks so that many products for different industries can be created. These issues are covered at the IDTechEx Printed Electronics Europe 2010 event, to be held in Dresden, Germany on April 13-14 (www.IDTechEx.com/peEurope). See www.IDTechEx.com/peEurope for details. Register at IDTechEx.com to receive free white papers, journal back issues and more http://www.idtechex.com/users/register.asp
Read editor-at-large Gail Flower's recent article on printed electronics.