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Henderson Forecast: Computer Equipment
November 30, 2009 |Estimated reading time: 1 minute
LOS ALTOS, CA — Though the recession has virtually decimated the computer industry, Henderson Ventures analysts predict double-digit computer industry gains by 2011. This year, the traditional Q’04 holiday bump in sales is expected to reappear, after being waylaid last year by the onset of the financial crisis. The recession has largely decimated the global computer industry. While PC growth rates will be positive this year, the unit gains are being driven by an enormous drop in average selling prices (ASPs). Consequently, global computer equipment production is predicted to be down 15.1% in 2009. Moreover, the recovery will be lukewarm. Only a 6.1% gain is predicted for 2010, followed by a more robust 9.7% burst in 2011. But output during 2011 will still be below levels achieved in 2007. The regional profiles underscore the continued importance of Asian production. China is forecast to grow by 12.2% in 2011.
The holiday season typically creates much stronger Q’04 PC deliveries than that of the third quarter in any given year. However, the onset of the 2008 financial crisis depressed shipments during the final three months of last year. This year, the traditional holiday bump is expected to reappear. And even though our forecast calls for fairly small quarter-to-quarter gains during the last three months of this year, year-to-year growth rates will be substantial. In particular, the US market will be up 20% y-y, while global shipments will be ahead by 10.4%. Those gains will be sufficient to produce a 5.1% increase in US PC shipments for 2009, while the global market will be ahead by 0.5%. The relatively strong performance of the US market during 2009 can be partially traced to delayed replacement cycles, as evidenced by a meager 0.2% increase in shipments during 2008 and the modest 4.7% gain in 2007. During 2010 and 2011, global PC growth rates will pick up with the help of a reinvigorated replacement cycle, partially fueled by the well-received Microsoft System 7 operating system and the release of Office 2010 due out next spring. The Henderson Forecast Summary is provided as an industry service by Henderson Ventures, http://www.hendersonventures.com More Henderson Reports:Henderson Forecast: 2009 Was Perfect Storm for Communications Economy Affects Equipment Investments Globally