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IPC December PCB Results: Book-to-Bill Ratios Dip
February 2, 2009 |Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
BANNOCKBURN, IL IPC Association Connecting Electronics Industries released the December findings from its monthly North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program, showing that the rigid PCB book-to-bill and the total industry book-to-bill ratios fell to about 0.90. Flex circuits showed a jump to above 1.00. The rigid circuits book-to-bill has been below parity for nine months, reflecting stagnant growth, said IPC president Denny McGuirk. The 2008 numbers showed a 1% gain over 2007.
Rigid PCB shipments are down 14.2% and bookings are down 24.5% in December 2008 from December 2007. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments are up 0.9% and bookings are down 5.5%. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments decreased 0.9% and rigid bookings decreased 4.6%. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 90% of the current PCB industry in North America, according to IPC's World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in December 2008 fell to 0.89.
Flexible circuit shipments in December 2008 are down 17.1%, but bookings are up 23.8% compared to December 2007. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments are up 3.4% and bookings are down 3.1%. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments are up 23.7% and flex bookings nearly doubled, up 99.9%. In December, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC's survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for approximately 68% of their shipment value reported for the month. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in December 2008 jumped to 1.08.
For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in December 2008 decreased 14.5% from December 2007 and orders booked decreased 21.1% from December 2007. Year to date, combined industry shipments are up 1.1% and bookings are down 5.3%. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for December 2008 are up 0.6% and bookings are up 1.3%. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in December 2008 dipped to 0.90.
IPC's monthly survey of the North American PCB industry tracks bookings and shipments from U.S. and Canadian facilities, which provide indicators of regional demand. These numbers do not measure U.S. and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, however, IPC asks survey participants for the percent of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (i.e., in the U.S. or Canada). In December 2008, 86% of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 85% of rigid PCB and 89% of flexible circuit shipments in December by IPC survey participants.
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC's survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to three months. Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
For more information, visit www.ipc.org.