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Book-to-bill Hovers below 1.00 in November
December 29, 2008 |Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
BANNOCKBURN, Ill. IPC Association Connecting Electronics Industries announced that the combined rigid and flex PCB book-to-bill ratio dipped slightly in November, hitting 0.94. Findings are from its monthly North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. The ratio has hovered below parity since a two-month stretch in March and April 2008, where it hit 1.01.
Rigid PCB shipments are down 5.8% and bookings are down 17.3% in November 2008 from November 2007. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments are up 2.4% and bookings are down 3.8%. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments decreased 0.2% and rigid bookings decreased 5.8%. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 90% of the current PCB industry in North America, according to IPC's "World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report." The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in November 2008 slipped slightly to 0.94.
Flexible circuit shipments in November 2008 are down 22.6% and bookings are down 36.8% compared to November 2007. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments are up 5.8% and bookings are down 5.5%. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments are down 25.2% and flex bookings decreased 45.4%. In November, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC's survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for approximately 70% of their shipment value reported for the month. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in November 2008 increased to 1.04.
For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in November 2008 decreased 7.0% from November 2007 and orders booked decreased 18.8% from November 2007. Year to date, combined industry shipments are up 2.6% and bookings are down 3.9%. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for November 2008 are down 2.3% and bookings are down 9.5%. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in November 2008 dipped to 0.94.
"PCB orders and shipments continued to decline in November, with flexible circuits being especially hard hit," said IPC president Denny McGuirk. "The flex segment is always more volatile, however, and the current month's poor performance followed an unusually strong October," he added. "Overall, the industry's sales are slowing as the recession deepens. We expect total industry sales to end the year at about the same level as 2007."
In November 2008, 86% of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 86% of rigid PCB and 91% of flexible circuit shipments in November by IPC survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC's survey sample, which may change slightly in January, but are kept constant through the calendar year.
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC's survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to three months. Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. The information in IPC's monthly PCB industry statistics is based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid and flexible PCB manufacturers in the U.S. and Canada.
For more information, visit www.ipc.org.