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Research Updates on PCBs, RoHS, Economy, and PCs
October 27, 2008 |Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
Nikkei Business reports on PCB fabricator outlooks; IPC expresses its concerns and expert advisory on RoHS revisions; Christopher Associates speaks on the economic status for manufacturers watching Wall Street; and Electronics.ca Publications released "Personal Computers A Global Industry Outlook."
The Nikkei Business Daily reports that PCB manufacturers face a tough road ahead amid growing uncertain about demand. Ken Murakoshi, senior analyst at the equities research division of Mizuho Securities Co., explains that new demand for PCBs does not match that seen in recent years, and that even those PCB fabricators that are doing well now face uncertainty about demand resulting from the Christmas shopping season and beyond. Rising labor costs in China and soaring materials prices are exacerbating conditions. Some manufacturers may begin lowering prices to win orders, Murakoshi adds. Value-added products such build-up circuit boards that were immune to price declines could end up being subject to competitive pricing. The demand outlook from January 2009 is still up in the air, and it's impossible to come up with any specific numbers. The previous model under which finished-product manufacturers paved the way for growth at PCB manufacturers no longer applies, he asserts. A sharp recovery within fiscal 2009 is not likely. Nikkei reports that Murakoshi detailed a lacking investment in capital equipment from PCB makers and a focus on high-value-added products to overcome economic challenges. The downturn in share prices is conducive for corporate acquisitions, added Murakoshi.
Regarding a recent news report that Tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) is on a draft list of substances for priority examination under the European Union's (EU) RoHS revisions, Denny McGuirk, IPC president, informed EU commissioners of IPC's position. The European Commission's Environment Directorate-General (DG) reportedly is proposing a new annex listing five substances for priority assessment and potential inclusion in RoHS, including TBBPA, a reactive flame retardant used in a majority of PCB laminate. "TBBPA has already undergone a comprehensive EU Risk Assessment and, therefore, is not expected to be subject to authorization under REACH," explained McGuirk. "The recommendation for priority review of TBBPA under RoHS seemingly undermines the EU's emerging chemicals policy and law under REACH." IPC urged the commission to reconsider the inclusion of TBBPA in its list of "priority review" substances under RoHS. Following interagency review of the Environment DG proposal, the Commission will present the proposed RoHS Revision to the European Parliament. The Environment DG's proposal is based on the Öko-Institute's substance recommendations. For more information, visit www.ipc.org/ehs.
Christopher Associates released a summary of the economic crisis and its relationship to electronics manufacturers, stating that, for the next year or two, Wall Street is going to have to digest these new developments of credit crunch, mortgage defaults, and government intervention. The stock market will lose a percentage of its value, but overall, good companies will remain sound investments, reasons Matt Holzmann, president, Christopher Associates. In addition, the overall U.S. economic numbers have been stable, he adds. Factory output, wages, etc., are all at the same rate they have been for the past year, and most EMS providers/OEMs/IDMs are still busy. This will change as the toll from Wall Street is taken, but underlying fundamentals such as exports, 3G rollout, HDTV rollout, and increased internet bandwidth requirements will help the electronics industry weather a recession. Continued growth in the military/aerospace market as well as medical will also contribute. Legislation helping manufacturing companies save capital investment dollars is scheduled to expire at year end. Two key provisions of the Economic Stimulus Package of 2008 provide a significant benefit. The first almost doubles the amount of Code 179 expensing to $250,000. This is especially useful to small- and medium-sized companies. The second provision allows for 50% first year depreciation of qualified property, helping to keep large and small companies in the U.S. stay competitive. These are the kind of laws common in Asia, where companies are constantly investing in new plant and equipment. To learn more, visit www.christopherweb.com.
Electronics.ca's "Personal Computers A Global Industry Outlook" provides a collection of statistical anecdotes, market briefs, and concise summaries of research findings for the personal computer (PC) end market. Trends covered include consumer and technology changes, buying and distribution patterns, and others. It investigates recent mergers, acquisitions, and other noteworthy strategic corporate developments. Trends also are broken out into geographic regions. For more information, visit www.electronics.ca.