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IMEC Looks to 2010 with Optimism
January 5, 2010 |Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
— Luc Van den hove, CEO of IMEC, shares the research organizations ideas for 2010 from semiconductors and R&D perspective. Though he says the economic downturn did not significantly delay the semiconductor roadmap, lessons from previous recessions should be applied in ways that fit today's environment.
At the end of 2009, we see that sales in the semiconductor industry are up, and that inventories are dwindling. Production at the moment is reaching the levels of 2008, just before the sector took a dive. So there is reason to be optimistic. Still, no one is sure if this uptake won’t be temporary, followed by a slowdown. So we see most semiconductor players take an optimistic but cautious outlook, running the fabs at near-full capacity, but not spending too much on building new capacity.
Looking back, the downturn did not significantly delay the semiconductor roadmap. But it has changed the industry landscape. Some players consolidated, others failed. Small and large players alike are forced to reduce their costs and critically question their expenses. Combined with the cautious outlook, this has delayed investments. Most obviously impacted are the tool suppliers. Tool orders nosedived in the first half of 2009, resulting in empty order books for some equipment companies and a crash of the equipment industry as a whole.
What we have learned from previous downturns (e.g. 2002) is that continuing R&D is vital for companies to be ready and thrive when the industry takes up again. However, this crisis was so severe that some companies have also started cutting in their R&D expenses. They are questioning their proprietary R&D, and look for alternatives.
One such alternative is collaboration for precompetitive research. Precompetitive research like we are doing at imec, together with semiconductor manufactures, tool makers and material suppliers. Outsourcing part of the R&D, sharing the costs and risks, turns out to be an attractive solution for these innovative companies that want to prepare for the future. It guarantees them a cost-effective advantage in the very competitive product development.
The semiconductor industry as a whole is exploring 2 directions now: the traditional scaling or More Moore axis, where new materials are explored to further push the roadmap to smaller dimensions and increased integration density; and the More than Moore axis, where addional functionality is added to CMOS technology.
CMOS scaling for the 22nm nodes and below represents a considerable R&D challenge. But we are learning fast, and we have promising solutions in the pipeline. The increasing demand for denser solid-state storage, combined with the need for additional compute power, especially to cope with increased video content, will require continued exponential increase of integration density.
Continued 2D scaling will be the first way to further increase the integration density. But, taking into account the technical challenges, there is a risk that 2D scaling alone will not allow us to keep up with the roadmap. Luckily, 3D integration is getting more mature, and the combination of 2D scaling and 3D integration will allow us to maintain the pace that is needed to follow Moore’s law.
In the wake of CMOS scaling, whole new areas of electronics are being developed. Especially the combination of technology turns out to be very fruitful. Finding matches between state-of-the-art technology in nanoelectronics, biology, mechanics, imaging, sensing and actuating. Many players are looking to leverage their knowledge in CMOS in new, smarter applications making use of these combinations.
Imec is a pioneer of More than Moore exploration. And as we have been at the forefront of More Moore, we have the expertise and equipment to go for More than Moore solutions that push the limits of what is possible: processing ICs with the smallest form factor and the lowest power use; Stacking ICs with layers of heterogeneous functions and materials. We do R&D into bioelectronics, photovoltaics, imaging, sensing, actuating, energy harvesting, power electronics, and all the combinations of these.
For companies that have ideas for new solutions, but that do not have the capability or resources to design, build, and qualify prototypes, we have recently broadened our offering. Our program CMORE can help them in any or all of these stages – if they find that they do not have the in-house capability or do not find an industrial solution elsewhere. We even offer a road to small volume production – in-house at imec – or to large-volume production – through our agreement with TSMC.
Indicators, also financial outlooks, are currently rising and companies are returning to profitability. But the question remains: what will 2010 look like? Is the current upswing sustainable, or is it temporary? There are hopeful signs for recovery, but the industry still finds itself in a fragile situation.
Although 2010 will be a challenging year, I am convinced that it will offer chances for innovative companies that look for new markets and keep on investing in R&D to prepare for the future.