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From the Editor
Mobile Electronics on Wheels
December 31, 1969 |
Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
No product so deftly blends consumer and harsh-environment electronics segments like cars. If you're looking for the major trends in PCB assembly technology, you'll find them in the automotive segment high-brightness LEDs, sensor networks, miniaturized consumer entertainment devices, RFID and Bluetooth interfaces, ruggedized electronics modules, and the list could go on. The tough thing, for designers and assemblers in this market, is that even the delicate assemblies of your integrated MP3 player in the dashboard need to withstand subzero temperatures on winter nights, and rapid ramps to cozy warmth when the engine is going. Sensor networks in your undercarriage, like those for tire pressure monitoring or skid control, face extreme conditions that would make the average PCBA quiver. So, if the automotive segment comprises a microcosm of electronics today, how is it doing?
The Henderson Forecast Summary released this week by Henderson Ventures paints a moderate picture of growth for automotive electronics. Conflicting forces are at work with the U.S. economy constricting, new vehicle sales are falling; however, those new vehicles are crammed with more electronics than previous models. "Potential car buyers increasingly want on-board access to all the entertainment electronics and gadgets that they have in their homes," Henderson's report points out. And the invisible electronics control gauges, monitoring systems, safety features, and the like are multiplying with each new model.
Henderson forecasts that unit output for consumer vehicles will grow a sluggish 2.5% this year, down from 5.4% in 2007. This slowdown is seen in the U.S. market and other developed areas, as well as emerging regions. China's output will slow from 25.8% in 2007 to 15.5% in 2008.
While vehicle demand wanes under economic pressures, electronics content in those cars heading off the lot will continue marching up. While 2008 is not forecast to match 2007's 8.1% growth in automotive electronics, it will see about a 5.6% increase, Henderson predicts. In 2009, we'll see 7.9% growth in automotive electronics; 2010 will bring 10.5% acceleration. Henderson foresees global automotive electronics production reaching $140 billion in 2010, with growth at that level.
We all know the woes of major U.S.-based automotive manufacturers, facing lean demand, strong international competition, and out-of-touch labor relations strategies. The housing crisis only compounds difficulties here. Slow new-model sales are not surprising, and its only logical that these would dampen automotive electronics growth. The upside of weaker vehicle sales is the higher proportion of electronics infiltrating each vehicle. Electric motors, electronic wheel control, external temperatures sensors, DVD players, and nearly other imaginable electronic product can find its way onto the road.
With a combination of government safety regulations and consumer desires bringing a plethora of electronic products into vehicles, assemblers and designers focused on the space will see a steady market in coming years. Innovation in this space plays a large part. Devices ride the line between form and functionality. Consumers are trending toward smaller vehicles, now that the SUV binge is being replaced with eco-conscious subcompact options. Space for electronics in a vehicle is limited, temperature extremes are challenging, and reliability even for a non-critical assembly like in-vehicle navigation is key to successful adoption in the market. Look for design for reliability (DfR), lead-free reliability, harsh-environment electronics, and advanced modeling and test strategies to become synonymous with the automotive electronics market rise.
Meredith Courtemanche, managing editor