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Handset Market Tapering
October 29, 2007 |Estimated reading time: Less than a minute
LOS ALTOS, Calif. The global mobile phone market is coming up against a "fundamental roadblock" over the next few years, as the supply of new subscribers globally tapers off. Handset production will reflect this leveling off of the market, according to the Henderson Forecast Summary.
Henderson predicts that 20+% growth rates are in the past, and the industry will see 10% growth in handset production through 2009. In 2007, the analysts see 11.4% growth in unit shipments; this number will fall to 9.4% in 2008, and rise to 11.7% the following year. These numbers are significantly lower than the 20.7% and 21.5% growth seen in 2005 and 2006, respectively (Figure 1).
The mobile communications sector saw a boost from strong economic conditions and wireless infrastructure in 2006, leading to a 12.6% increase in communication equipment production, but that also is expected to drop in 2007. Slowed macroeconomic success and a tailoff in mobile communications will hinder equipment production, creating a 6% growth year. By 2009, however, Henderson expects equipment production to rebound to 10.1% annual growth (Figure 2). This is normal market cycling, according to the forecasters, and not a fundamental change like that seen in the handset arena.
For more on Henderson's forecast, see www.hendersonventures.com.